Estimation of the worldwide prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an evaluation for the World Burden of Illness Research 2019



Given the projected traits in inhabitants ageing and inhabitants development, the variety of individuals with dementia is predicted to extend. As well as, robust proof has emerged supporting the significance of probably modifiable threat components for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated development is essential for public well being planning and useful resource prioritisation. This examine aimed to enhance on earlier forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating info on chosen threat components.


We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia threat components included within the World Burden of Illnesses, Accidents, and Danger Components Research (GBD) 2019 (excessive body-mass index, excessive fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, utilizing relative dangers and forecasted threat issue prevalence to foretell GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world area and nation. Utilizing linear regression fashions with schooling included as a further predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD dangers. To evaluate the relative contribution of future traits in GBD threat components, schooling, inhabitants development, and inhabitants ageing, we did a decomposition evaluation.


We estimated that the variety of individuals with dementia would enhance from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million instances globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million instances in 2050. Regardless of giant will increase within the projected variety of individuals residing with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained steady between 2019 and 2050 (international proportion change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there have been extra girls with dementia than males with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we anticipate this sample to proceed to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity within the projected will increase throughout international locations and areas, with the smallest proportion adjustments within the variety of projected dementia instances in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the most important in north Africa and the Center East (367% [329–403]) and jap sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected will increase in instances may largely be attributed to inhabitants development and inhabitants ageing, though their relative significance various by world area, with inhabitants development contributing most to the will increase in sub-Saharan Africa and inhabitants ageing contributing most to the will increase in east Asia.


Development within the variety of people residing with dementia underscores the necessity for public well being planning efforts and coverage to handle the wants of this group. Nation-level estimates can be utilized to tell nationwide planning efforts and choices. Multifaceted approaches, together with scaling up interventions to handle modifiable threat components and investing in analysis on organic mechanisms, will probably be key in addressing the anticipated will increase within the variety of people affected by dementia.


Invoice & Melinda Gates Basis and Gates Ventures.


A rising physique of proof from North America and Europe suggests a reducing development in dementia incidence, doubtlessly on account of will increase in academic attainment and enhancements within the administration of heart problems and its threat components.


  • Wolters FJ
  • Chibnik LB
  • Waziry R
  • et al.
Twenty-seven-year time traits in dementia incidence in Europe and the USA: the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.